Category: Forecasts & Technical Analysis
The news items published under this category are as follows.
Friday, March 07, 2008
Market Forecasts- US Dollar, Euro, Yen, Gold, Commodities / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Christopher_Laird
So much is happening with the USD and the critical US credit markets, as well as with gold and commodities. Now that the USD broke below the key 73 level on the USDX (US dollar index basket of currencies, heavily Euro weighted) many key issues come to the fore for gold and commodities.
Euro, commodities
First, the EU is still rather firm on interest rates, but they have a lot of pressure as the Euro breaks over 1.50. The ECB and EU have previously made comments that they could intervene in currency markets if the Euro breaks above 1.50 . Any indication that can happen will cause a significant USD turnaround. That would then apply to gold and oil as well, as these have risen so much recently and are due for profit taking (or that pressure is there). So, the Euro situation needs to be closely tracked, as any significant change in policy can cause oil, gold, and commodity profit taking.
Thursday, January 03, 2008
Forecasts for 2008 - Stock and Financial Markets, Commodities, Housing and US Elections / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Tim_Iacono
Yesterday's review of predictions for 2007 wasn't nearly as good as the year before, but then the bar was set rather high back in 2006 . As it was, the results were again mostly A's with a few lower grades in areas where predictions probably shouldn't have been made anyway.
Of course, when three of the ten predictions are oil, gold, and the dollar, guesses of up, up, and down really are slam-dunks.
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Monday, March 05, 2007
Gold Forecast - The Commercials Got it right! Gold to be weak for some weeks / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
On 21st February an article was posted titled COMMERCIALS ON THE ROPES. This article was based on the erroneous presumption that "this time round it will be different" - that the COT pattern would be broken by a surge in physical demand.
Well, as subsequent events have proved, this time round it wasn't different, it was the same as it has always been. The Commercial shorts rose to a very high level and gold's advance was killed and it went into sharp reverse. This was a serious error of judgment that will not be repeated.
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Sunday, March 04, 2007
Gold and Silver Analysis - One Step Forward, Two Steps Back / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dominick
It's true that the buying power of gold and silver could increase considerably during a period of acute economic calamity. But, as economists and other analysts have been quick to note over the past few days, the current data simply do not decisively forecast a recession in the U.S. , let alone a catastrophe of apocalyptic proportions. Yes, mortgage defaults are still a legitimate concern, but the numbers simply don't show any significant spillover from the housing or credit bubbles, at least not yet.
The most recent manufacturing data actually indicates a modest recovery in that sector. Even weak capital expenditure in the durable goods data, the seeming straw that broke the camel's back, is a shot across the bow, but hardly a sign of the end times.
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Sunday, March 04, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 4th March 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Merv_Burak
WOW! but no time to panic -- yet. Not good short term but still okay for the other time periods. Let's get on with the analysis.
GOLD LONG - TERM
Getting right to it, the long term P&F chart has reversed direction but not trend . What this means is that on the chart we are now heading downwards with the O s but have not issued a reversal of basic trend yet. On the long term chart we are still some distance to any kind of trend reversal signal so hang on to your hats, we may be in for more volatility ahead. At the present time the action would have to go as low as $555 before issuing a new bear signal. With some up and down volatility, enough to reverse the direction of the chart again, that could be increased to the $600 level but let's see what transpires. For now, the long term, per the P&F , is still intact.
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Sunday, March 04, 2007
How do you Spell TOP in the Dow Jones and other Stock Market Indices / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Boris_Chikvashvili
How do you Spell Stock Market TOP ?
Look at the projection on the chart below - The Red curve SOLD QQQQ 44.73 2c From the Top.
The Original projection was posted 3 days before the top !
"Sentiment is Super Bullish, Bearish transportation not confirming, buying pressure is rising, stocks not responding. Dow has either topped Wednessday or may have 1% more left".
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Sunday, March 04, 2007
GOLD Elliott Wave Analysis - Is Gold Really Safe? We Think Not / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Francois_Soto
Gold Truly Didn't Shine this WeekAfter trying to test without any success the $700 psychological level, the gold commodity plunged by more than $50 to nearly $640 this Friday from its short term top of $690. In the potential bear market that may occur in equities, are gold and gold stocks really safe investments in a mid term perspective? This is the question we will try to answer in this analysis using mainly the Elliott Wave Theory.
The Gold Commodity
The first question before starting the analysis is: When did the bull market in the gold commodity really begin? By looking at gold commodity in $USD, it's not that easy to answer this question because there are two possible periods: either mid 1999 or early 2001.
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Saturday, March 03, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 3rd March 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Last Tuesday NASDAQ volume of declining issues (OTC DV) was 24 times the volume of advancing issues (OTC AV). In the past ratios of that magnitude usually occurred near short term lows.
Short Term
Last Tuesday's 24 to 1 ratio of OTC AV / OTC DV ranks 8th highest since 1978, the first year for which I have NASDAQ volume data.
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Friday, March 02, 2007
Stock Market Falls - What to do now ? / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Hans_Wagner
On Tuesday February 27, 2006, the market once again told everyone that it is in charge with a 3.3% drop in the DJIA. When the market makes a move like it did, the first thing to do is step back and assess your situation. History shows us that significant drops in the market are not the start of a new bear market. There are exceptions; however, we are looking at the probabilities. As a result I do not believe this is a bear market. At least not yet. Days like today are often followed by further declines. Most times falls like this, present buying opportunities over the next few days, sometimes up to weeks.
This fall was caused by several factors including:
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Thursday, March 01, 2007
US Housing Market - Homeownership Rate and Sub-Prime Mortgages - A Positive Correlation? / Housing-Market / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Chart 1 shows that the national homeownership rate (the percentage of occupied housing units that are owner occupied housing units) started rising sharply around 1995, hitting a record high in 2004. Why this sudden rise in homeownership?
Chart 1
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Major Top in Gold this Year ? - Elliott 5th Wave Peak ? / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Roland_Watson
Gold and silver were caught in the downdraft of selling on the stock exchanges today but having surged from last October's lows, a respite was always looming as the price increased.
However, the subject of this article is not the short-term movement of gold but where the next major sell point will be. There are various commentaries suggesting that gold will move fairly easily into quadruple digits with some breath to spare. I agree with these analysts that gold will move into four figures and then some. The only argument is when?
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Wednesday, February 28, 2007
The Ugly Reality of the US Stockmarket - How it suckers retail Investors / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
It doesn't take a great treatise or any "rocket science" to expose the ugly and sordid reality of the true condition of the broad US stockmarket - all it takes is a few charts and a modest helping of common sense.
The reason why the Dow Jones Industrials Average features so prominently in the mainstream financial press is that it is the principal tool used by wholesale vendors of stock to sucker the ordinary retail investor into buying at market tops. The recent past provides a perfect example.
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Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Free Access to EWI's Currencies Specialty Service - Forex Forecasts worth $99 / Currencies / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Sarah_Jones
We have great news from our network associate, Elliottwave.com. We have arranged FREE ACCESS to Elliottwave.com's Premium intraday and end-of-day Forex Forecast subscription service worth $99, for one full week for all of our site visitors!
Beginning March 1 at noon EST and ending March 8 at noon EST, anyone gets complete access to EWI's Currencies Specialty Service - Forex Forecasts at no cost! Your access includes:
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Wednesday, February 28, 2007
US Dollar Index Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast / Currencies / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: David_Petch
Today's report is about analysis of the US Dollar Index. Fibonacci time extensions of two different waves are shown midway on the chart and Fib price retracements of the most recent decline from November till December shown on the right hand side. The 61.8% retracement level was strong resistance, which sent the index down to test the 38.2% retracement level. The lower 55 MA Bollinger band is rising, with the upper 55 MA BB declining.
This suggests we can expect to see the USD chopping sideways for 5-10 days before a sharp decline occurs. There is a Fib cluster around March 20 th , suggestive that a bottom in the USD looms around this date. Short-term stochastics have the %K beneath the %D, with another 3-4 weeks at a minimum before a bottom is in place.
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Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Stock Markets follow China Lower - What to expect next as China's crash continues in Asia / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The FTSE 100 Index & Major European indices are expected to open sharply lower following on from sharp drops on Tuesday, which saw China's Shanghai index fall by 9% to 2771. The Dow Jones down by more than 3% to 12217, the largest drop since Sept 11th 2001.
All of the major markets broke key technical levels, signaling that the current bear run is likely to continue for some time. At the time of writing, asian stock markets continue to plunge lower on Wednesday morning, with many markets such as Australia and Japan falling further by nearly 4% at mid session.
What to Expect Next ?
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Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Global Mania is Deflating as China Crashes / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Paul_Lamont
According to a study by Knox and Inkster, a pair of Canadian psychologists, people are much more confident of their horses' chances of winning just after placing a bet, than they are immediately before they lay down the bet. As Robert Cialdini explains, “Of course, nothing about the horses' chances actually shifts; it's the same horse, on the same track, in the same field, but in the mind of the betters, its prospects improve significantly once that ticket is purchased. Once a stand has been taken, the need for consistency pressured these people to bring what they felt and believed in line with what they had already done.”
Markets are cyclical. Unfortunately, investors that stay fully invested, diversified, and ‘consistent' until the end of this bear market will lose most of their funds. In our last article , we concluded that a greater than 50% correction in the Chinese indexes over the next 2-3 years was highly probable. On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged 8.8%, the most in 10 years. The downside percentage decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be similar and will be detailed further in our next article.
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Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Weekly Market Wrap - Commodities, Gold, Silver & Stock Markets 27th Feb / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
This week's market wrap will be shorter then usual, as we are on vacation. Next week the full market wrap will return.
The following will focus mainly on the precious metal's markets, which made nine-month highs this past week.
The first chart below is the daily chart of gold. The chart is self-explanatory.
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Monday, February 26, 2007
Silver Forecast - Targeting Break of Key Resistance at $15.20 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
Although silver did not stage such an obviously important breakout as gold last week, it did nevertheless rise in tandem, and succeeded in breaking out above important resistance at its early December highs, putting it in position for "The Big One", which will be the breakout above last year's highs at about $15.20, which is an objective that silver, with its propensity for big moves could easily achieve in a single day from the current position.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 26, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 26th Feb 2007 - Technically P / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Merv_Burak
Tuesday was a bummer. Was someone playing around with the bullion? Wednesday was back on track and everything looks great.
GOLD - LONG TERM
Well, we now have a stronger confirmation on the long term P&F chart that the bull is on once more. The original upside break at $660 still had some resistance from earlier action but that was breached by the move to $690 this past week. Yes, there still is that previous high set last May but that is expected to be breached in not to distant future. When we draw our 45 degree up or down trend lines we can often draw a parallel resistance or support line.
Monday, February 26, 2007
S&P Index Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis & Forecast / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dominick
Last week I stated: We now have the potential of either seeing a final diagonal that the forum has been alerted to for months now, or an acceleration that will have most traders on the wrong side and flat broke within days. I haven't changed a thing about my view, but I'm not going to force a position if the market's out to get me. As members already know, I'm prepared to trade both ends of the trend.
Many weeks ago I had an upside target of 1472, and since last Monday's post, the target has been adjusted to 1462/1470. At this point that level is very doable, but much higher than that won't be a good thing for short traders.
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Monday, February 26, 2007
Gold Bullish Breakout Confirmed / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
Gold has gone and done it - after first breaking out upside from its 3-arc Fan Correction in January, a major positive technical development celebrated in the article Gold powering up for major uptrend - SECTORWIDE BUY ALERT , last week it smashed through the ceiling of resistance at and towards $680, with subsequent solid action confirming that this was a genuine breakout.
In the Gold Market update of 23rd January it was stated "The situation is now very finely balanced with an army of traders either sat on the fence, or, depending on which way it breaks, on the wrong side of the trade. When it does break out - and it is beginning to look like it will be to the upside, there will be a stampede and an upside breakout from here could thus easily involve a $20 - $30 up day for gold." As you all know, that is exactly what we saw last week.
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Monday, February 26, 2007
A Perfect Storm in Metals - Gold and Silver Breakouts / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dominick
After long fall and winter seasons of expecting only gradual upward trends in the metals, with suspicion of large, fast moves, the bias of this update shifted two weeks ago as we described all the bullish fundamentals aligning in favor of the metals complex. We warned traders that a breakout had not yet occurred and that, while there was enough demand to prevent an all-out selloff, buyers should look for favorable entry points (we even took the opportunity to do a little shameless self promotion and mention our proprietary trend charts).
Specifically, we said:
"Even with bullish seasonality, money supply inflation, higher demand and geopolitical instability all creating a floor beneath gold and silver, it's still going to take a decisive catalyst to send these metals rocketing back to last May's highs and beyond."
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Saturday, February 24, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 24th Feb 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: All of the major averages hit all time or multiyear highs last week.
Short Term
The picture is mixed. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell for 3 consecutive days after hitting a multiyear high last Tuesday.
The chart below covers the last 6 months showing the SPX in red and an indicator that shows the percentage of the last 3 trading days that were up in black. In the past 6 months the SPX has not fallen for more than 3 consecutive days. Except for the occurrence at the end of last year, each time there have been 3 consecutive down days it marked a short term low.
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Saturday, February 24, 2007
Warning China's Stock Market will Crash this year / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Marty_Chenard
Let me say this very simply ...
China's Stock Market will Crash sometime this year .
After listening to CNBC applaud the historic rise in the Shanghai index, I was elated to see the responsible reporting that the Los Angeles Times did on the subject. Staff writer Don Lee wrote the article in with the help of Cao Jun in the Shanghai Bureau. My congrats to them for writing a timely and informative piece that the rest of the media is avoiding.
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Friday, February 23, 2007
Gold through the roof! Here's what's next for Gold Oil and the Stock Market / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry here, with an urgent update on key markets, starting with gold.
The yellow metal went through the roof yesterday ... chalking up a stunning $23 gain on the day, blasting through its July peak ... and launching a price explosion that could easily send it to new, all-time highs very quickly.
Ditto for oil, which surged $1.22, and is now poised for a major new bull market.
Friday, February 23, 2007
Gold Stocks Versus Crude Oil Stocks Forecast / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clif_Droke
The AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) closed 0.50% higher on Thursday, Feb. 22, to finish the day at 356.34 while the XAU was 0.16% higher at 146.05. The spot gold index closed at $379 while spot silver closed Thursday at $14.22.
In my Feb. 5 commentary on the natural resource stocks I wrote, "Although some of the XAU's price oscillators are slowly inching into positive territory and are no longer 'oversold,' the primary consideration right now isn't overbought versus oversold. It's the strongly rising internal momentum from a 90-day rate of change standpoint.
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Thursday, February 22, 2007
Silver Investment Strategy - Knowing when to Sell / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Roland_Watson
As we anticipate the next and final leg of phase I of the precious metals bull market, investors need to be ready with their exit strategies if they wish to unload all or part of their assets in a profitable manner.
Not all holders of gold and silver will be of this mind, each has their own reason for holding or not holding any part of their investment. Either way, you need to be sure what you are going to do as silver begins to move in leaps and bounds towards the next major price peak.
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Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Gold Surges to $680 as Commercials on the Ropes Cover Short Positions / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
Some people thought I was mad posting a GOLD and SILVER BREAKOUT ALERT on www.clivemaund.com on the 19th, what with the Commercials being so heavily short gold, and with yesterday's action I began to wonder myself, which is why it didn't get posted on public websites on the 20th as originally planned. The reason for posting that breakout alert was that a rare technical setup exists that actually makes the Commercials' huge short position wildly bullish.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Stock Market Bubbles Brewing in Shanghai, Tokyo, and London / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Gary_Dorsch
“There is a bubble growing. Investors should be concerned about the risks,” said Cheng Siwei, vice-chairman of China’s National People’s Congress in a January 31st interview with the Financial Times. “But in a bull market, people will invest relatively irrationally. Every investor thinks they can win. But many will end up losing. But that is their risk and their choice,” Cheng warned.In what might develop into the third biggest stock market bubble in history, ranked alongside Japan’s Nikkei-225 of 1986-89, and the Nasdaq’s 1999-2000 bull run, the Shanghai Composite “A” share Index, restricted mainly to Chinese nationals, has posted a 140% gain over the past 12-months, after soaring 46% in the fourth-quarter of 2006 alone. And without deliberate market intervention, the A-share market could inflate into a Nasdaq-like bubble.
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Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Trading - Timing The Entry into a Market Position / InvestorEducation / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Hans_Wagner
Timing the Entry sets the parameters to buy the potential high profit stocks that have been identified. The objective is to identify the rules that will be used to enter a buy (or short), the exit target and the trailing stop. Technical analysis provides the best way to effectively plan the trade. Many people believe that being able to properly read and interpret a chart leads to profitable trades. Unfortunately, this is not true. Reading a chart to identify the existing patters, trends and interpreting the indicators only provides the framework for executing a trade. The secret is to identify the characteristics on the chart that when realized will yield an optimal trade opportunity. You are preparing to commitment your hard earned money, so you want to be as sure as possible that the trade criteria is the best it can be.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 19, 2007
Coffee Futures Bull Market Opportunity Brewing / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst other commodity markets have recently raced a head, Coffee has been marking time. What we now need to know is whether the time is now near for Coffee to to shift gears and start its own bull run to much higher prices. Most recent price action has taken coffee down from 130 to 113 (March 07), with the immediate trend still down, giving us the opportunity to enter at the earliest price trigger coming off of a low.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 19, 2007
Gold Analysis : The Best Risk/Reward Trade Available / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dominick
“The expectation therefore is that the action of a single day will not to buck the larger trend, which is for yields to continue their move lower.”
For the last two weeks, this update has been alerting readers to the fact the U.S. economy needs lower interest rates, in the form of bond yields, and household liquidity, in the form of a higher stock market. The effects of these moves would be to encourage buyers' working off the housing supply glut and to save the mortgage lending industry from collapse. It must be simply a coincidence that the pace of both these trends, lower yields and higher stocks, accelerated last Wednesday on Chairman Bernanke's testimony.
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Sunday, February 18, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 18th Feb 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Merv_Burak
Butting heads with that $675 resistance level gold just couldn't get enough steam to get anywhere this past week. Maybe this coming week – or maybe not.
GOLD : LONG TERM On the long term P&F chart we are now at that $675 resistance level previously mentioned. Depending upon which long term chart one uses ($10 or $15 units) will depend upon what level would be considered the break-out. Since I have switched over to the $15 unit charts some time back, due to the high price level of the activity, that break-out would be on a move to the $690 level. As mentioned last week we do have a bullish upside break by gold's lower resistance break so one would be a cautious long term bull based upon that but still waiting for the next confirmation break.
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Saturday, February 17, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 17th Feb 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Several of the major averages including the Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA), S&P mid cap (MID) and Russell 2000 (R2K) closed at their all time highs on Friday. New highs across the capitalization spectrum suggest there is more to come.
Short Term
Two weeks ago the MID finished a run of 10 consecutive up days. Then it fell for 2 days and resumed its upward run for another 4 consecutive days ending Friday.
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Gold is looking overbought in the short-term and could correct lower to $630 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
We have seen the breakout predicted in the last Gold Market update, although so far subsequent gains have been modest as gold continues to be restrained by the strong resistance level shown on the 1-year chart in the $655 - $680 zone. Although we have seen limited gains so far following this breakout, it was nevertheless an important technical development that is viewed as marking the start of a major uptrend which is still in its infancy.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Silver showing signs of weakness as failing to breakout higher / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
Silver is believed to be slowly limbering up to take out the resistance at and towards last year's highs, an event that can be expected to lead to a major advance. However, shorter-term the picture is not so bright.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Dollar Requires Valentines Lift from Bernanke - Currencies Analysis / Currencies / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The dollar selloff of the past 2 days is reaching key support levels, which would only stabilize from an upbeat testimony by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.
We expect Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to offer a vital dose of support for the dollar as his message should not only reiterate the upbeat tone of the last FOMC statement, but also reflect the particularly hawkish remarks from Fed officials last Friday.
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Monday, February 12, 2007
Crude Oil - Will it go down to $40 or up to $100 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Hans_Wagner
If you knew the answer to this one, you could make a lot of money and beat the market . So let's take a look at the issues and see what can be determined. First, demand is going to increase over time as an energy-hungry developing world needs more and more energy. Take a look at this chart from the Bank Credit Analyst showing the percentage of global oil consumption that comes from China and India. It is going from the lower left to the upper right, and only slowed during the slowdown in global growth around 2001.
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Stock & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 11th February 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dominick
Going into the week, members had the benefit of the 1458 target on the S&P futures that I mentioned in the Forum and reiterated several times at the start of the week. As you might recall, the February 4th update stated:
“I think this is the time the market makes or breaks. I do think the market has a great chance of turning before the target of SPX 1472 I have. As it was difficult to share the opinion of a huge rally in the summer, its hard here to express a bit of danger as the markets advance each and every day. I see next week as a slight advance on Monday and then possible a boring consolidation before another advance that marks a turn. Do we have confirmation that this week was it. No way, but I do have enough evidence that if things remain as they are, we will rollover soon. That said, you can make the case that if all is peaceful next week, we could doll up a few markets and give them their finishing touches.”
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Sunday, February 11, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 11th Feb 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Merv_Burak
Do you believe the world wide attention the death of Anna Nicole has been receiving? No wonder gold was moving higher and higher almost every day this week.
GOLD : LONG TERM
The long term prognosis is looking better and better every day, except for momentum. It is still under performing the price move but IS moving higher. While the price is just about ready to breach its $677.50 resistance from the June/July rally high, momentum is still some distance below its high level. Volume, however, is ready to move into new all time highs although the daily action still leaves a lot to be desired. The price continues above its moving average line and although the line is only slightly in the positive direction it is turning more so.
Saturday, February 10, 2007
Gold Breakout and HUI Index Set to Advance to between 700 - 900 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
The title of this article was designed to get you to click on it and open it, and now that you're here, you should stick around because you are probably going to find this interesting.
In this game the most important things to observe are often the simplest - many people get lost in a quicksand of detail so that they can't see the woods for the trees, and thus end up losing sight of the big picture. So today we are going to keep it simple and to the point, which is easy because the market itself is giving us some very clear indications.
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Saturday, February 10, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 10th Feb 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Same as last week, most of the major indices hit new multiyear or all time highs.
Short Term
Last week I discussed the implications of the Russell 2000 (R2K) moving up for 6 consecutive days. On Thursday last week the S&P mid cap index (MID) completed a run of 10 consecutive up days, an occurrence seen only twice in the past 15 years
Thursday, February 08, 2007
New Technical Indicator that Times Bull Market Peaks in Gold and Silver / InvestorEducation / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Roland_Watson
There is one question above all others that is on the minds of gold and silver investors. It can be expressed in two ways.
The first is "At what price will the gold and silver bull market end?"
The second is similar "At what date will the gold and silver bull market end?"
The chief end of both questions is the same, getting out with maximum profits for the holder of gold and silver be it in bullion, ETF or mining stock form.
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Wednesday, February 07, 2007
Gold Price Manipulation - Does it Matter ? / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
There has been more talk in recent weeks on the subject of gold price manipulation. The purpose of this article is not to attempt to go into the details of whether or not there is manipulation, or how much there is, or who is doing it or why, because all of this is has been raked over by other writers in considerable detail. The purpose of this article is to examine what difference it makes to us as investors and traders, and how best to live with it.
The first point to make clear is that to whatever degree there is gold price manipulation/suppression, there is nothing much the ordinary investor can do about it - you are going to have to live with it, like taxation - so there's no point in losing any sleep over it.
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Wednesday, February 07, 2007
Rising Crude Oil and G7: Yen Strength or US Dollar Weakness ? / Currencies / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The dollar's technical outlook has taken a turn to the worse on a combination of aggressive pre-G7 currency talk favoring yen stability and an 18% increase in oil prices over the past 3 weeks.
Oil Rebound as Fast as Past Decline
An 18% rise over a 3-week period is as significant as a 20% decrease over a 4-week period (oil's decline from mid December to mid January), but oil's rebound has not yet made it to the front pages as it is "only" at 4 week highs, which is not as "spectacular" as 18-month lows - seen in mid January. But the magnitude of the current rebound is comparable to the prior declines. The significance of the recent oil increase is such that US consumers may start to struggle in spending their way to an economic soft landing and keeping intact the Goldilocks scenario (neither too hot nor too cold). A prolonged slowdown in US housing would raise risks of a double whammy for the US economy, especially at a time, when US manufacturing deepens in a recession.
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Market Wrap - Summary All Markets / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
Interest rates are still key, as they affect the bond market, the mortgage market, and the housing market; which in turn affects many peripheral markets such as lumber, copper, furniture, and appliances to name but a few.
Interest rates had been on the rise but began to drop back this week. That is good news for all those that own mortgages - although we did see that mortgages still went up, not down. Hopefully the lesser rates will filter down to the mortgage markets - if the bankers want to play nice, which is a very cold altar to place one's faith in.
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Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Market Wrap - Gold & Silver Stocks / Companies / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
The HUI Index lost 0.21 cents for the week, closing out at $332.32. During the week it had been as high as $343.56 and as low as $324.38. Another false break out occurred as will be shown on the chart below.
The same caveats apply here as they did to gold. Working off overhead supply takes time. A last correction/consolidation may take place before the new bull market phase begins in earnest. The above $324.38 is our first line of support.
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Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Market Wrap - Commodities, Gold and Silver / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
For the week, the CRB index gained 1.8% - still down just under 2% for the year. However, pay heed to the second chart below that paints a whole different picture regarding commodities.
Wheat prices fell 0.5%, the fifth decline in six weeks. However, do not be mislead, as the price of wheat was up 48% last year, reaching a 10 year high of $5.57 in October. We view this as just the beginning of a long term trend.
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